Photo: Theo McInnes.
On January 29, 2026, the Trump Administration issued an executive order, where it declares a “national emergency” regarding Cuba. Although it does not directly impose economic sanctions, It creates a system of tariffs against third countries that sell or supply oil to Cuba.
This measure, which could have a significant economic and political impact, adds to the pressure exerted by the U.S. against the Cuban regime. The island is currently experiencing a severe energy crisis following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, a close ally of Havana. It remains to be seen whether Mexico, another country that supplies crude oil to Cuba, will continue this policy in light of the U.S. government's actions.
For Cubalex, this is not the strictest sanction in historical terms. Measures such as the total embargo of 1962 or the Helms-Burton Act were legally more severe. However, This executive order significantly worsens the current situation in Cuba because it acts on a critical sector. —the supply of oil— and it does so indirectly, by pressuring third countries. In the context of an energy and economic crisis, its practical impact can be very high, even though it does not constitute the harshest sanctions regime in history.
The measure announced in 2026 does not directly change those basic rules. It does not prohibit new exports, cancel humanitarian exceptions, or introduce an additional blanket ban against Cuba. Instead, it targets countries that supply oil to the island. What the U.S. government does is authorize the imposition of punitive tariffs on products those countries export to the United States., as a form of pressure to stop them selling oil to Cuba. In other words, the sanction is not formally directed against Cuba, but against third countries, but the ultimate goal is to affect the Cuban energy supply.
However, for Cubalex, from a human rights perspective and in accordance with the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle, the The primary responsibility for preventing the current economic and energy crisis in Cuba from turning into a humanitarian catastrophe lies with the Cuban state., regardless of the measures taken by the United States.
According to Cubalex, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) establishes that states have the primary obligation to protect their population from serious and preventable harm, such as famine, the collapse of essential services, and the loss of human life. In this regard, the organization emphasizes that the Cuban government maintains control of the institutional apparatus, economic policy, resource allocation, the energy system, and access to basic goods, therefore It cannot evade its responsibility by solely citing the impact of external sanctions.
Cubalex maintains that the Cuban state must adopt urgent and verifiable measures to protect the civilian population, prioritize essential services, and guarantee access to food, electricity, drinking water, and medical care. Among these actions, it highlights the need to publicly acknowledge the severity of the crisis, allow international cooperation without political manipulation, facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid, and implement internal reforms that reduce the structural vulnerability of the citizenry.
The organization acknowledges that the United States also has human rights obligations, particularly the duty to avoid disproportionate impacts on the civilian population. In this regard, it considers it legitimate for civil society to address the U.S. government to demand that any pressure tactics include clear humanitarian safeguards, monitoring mechanisms, and effective exceptions that protect fundamental rights such as life, health, and food.
Cubalex points out that the new executive order does not constitute an automatic and irreversible prohibition, but rather leaves room for negotiation by including measures that are adjustable and subject to review. However, it warns that this space will only be viable if the Cuban regime demonstrates genuine political will through verifiable commitments regarding human rights, fundamental freedoms, and institutional reforms.
In relation to the Regarding the lifting of the embargo, the organization notes that current US regulations condition this process on the existence of a transitional government and, subsequently, a democratically elected government., with minimum guarantees of civil rights, political pluralism and free elections.
Finally, Cubalex emphasizes the central role of civil society as an actor in prevention and monitoring. From its perspective, organized citizens must document the impacts of the crisis, raise awareness of humanitarian risks, demand transparency from both the Cuban state and international actors, and insist on participation in any negotiation or transition process, in order to prevent decisions from being made without considering the effective protection of the population.